After a crucial offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays might not have much to show for their efforts. The team may only have this winter to sign an extension before its homegrown star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., enters free agency and receives high offers from many big-market teams. Guerrero is in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
According to reports, Guerrero has given himself until spring training to complete an agreement with the team, and ESPN’s Paul Hembekides has hinted that the offer might not be enough.
February 18. In addition to being Toronto’s first full-squad practice, Hembekides writes, “It is also the self-imposed deadline for extension negotiations between Vlad Jr. and the organization.”
“They will offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he will turn down their advances and pursue free agency instead, so the Blue Jays will have to pay to keep their homegrown star.”
Guerrero has good reason to think he might get even more on the open market next winter, even though a $400 million deal would be alluring. With at least 26 home runs in each of the previous four seasons, he is already a four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove Award winner at the age of just 25.
With recent high-profile contracts like those of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, which have skyrocketed to around $700 million, he could see his next deal reach $500 million if he entertains offers from teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets in addition to the Blue Jays.
“Guerrero is starting his walk year at a good time—he slashed.323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which helped him finish sixth in the American League MVP race,” Hembekides continued. Guerrero turns 26 on March 16.
The Blue Jays might try to trade Guerrero if they can’t get him to sign an agreement before the season begins. Dealing Guerrero away for some sort of controllable value going forward would be the wise course of action if the team appears to be out of playoff contention for the second consecutive year and the front office gives up on keeping him into 2025.
However, with lucrative free agency coming next winter, teams may be unwilling to pay a high price to add him for a portion of the 2025 season. Ultimately, the Blue Jays may be in a difficult position if they are unable to match or exceed the highest offer for their homegrown superstar.
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