Coming into the winter, it was assumed that Max Fried would not return to the Braves. After nearly four seasons as one of the team’s top pitchers, Fried had just priced himself out of Atlanta’s reach. Despite understanding that signing the lefty would come at a high cost, no one could have predicted how much he would receive. A day after losing out on superstar Juan Soto, the Yankees were resolved not to be outbid and signed the 30-year-old to an eight-year contract worth $218 million.
Coming into the summer, it was thought that Fried would receive five to six years of between $25 and $28 million per season. The biggest predicted deal totaled $168 million. The Yankees, of course, outperformed this forecast, giving Fried eight years, while the average yearly value of $27.25 million each season was consistent with expectations.
Since joining the Braves rotation in 2019, the southpaw has produced 22.2 bWAR and 18.4 fWAR, ranking him among the top 15 in both categories. Because of New York’s consistent success, calling this a massive overpayment feels ridiculous. Consider Aaron Nola, who has earned roughly 5 fWAR more than Fried since 2019. Last offseason, the sturdy righty remained in Philadelphia, signing a seven-year, $172 million contract. Nola was six months younger than Fried at the time, had almost no injury history, but agreed to pay roughly $2 million less per season and play one fewer season.
Consider Blake Snell, a fellow lefty who is only a year older than Fried. While Snell hasn’t had the consistent success that Fried had, he has put up 16.2 fWAR since 2019. Unlike Fried, Snell has won two Cy Young Awards. Snell’s injuries caused him to miss time, yet he still received $182 million over five years. While he outperformed Fried in average annual value, Fried will still receive $36 million more over the course of his contract.
Of course, Max Fried has not always been considered the ultimate standard for health. Fried had forearm neuritis in 2024, which kept him out for two weeks. The previous season, he only pitched 77.2 innings due to hamstring and forearm injuries. Of course, there are innumerable other minor injuries that occurred during his stay in the majors. In this regard, looking at Carlos Rodon, his new teammate who missed the majority of multiple seasons with the White Sox due to injury, makes sense. Rodon had just completed two successful full seasons with Chicago and San Francisco.
The Yankees were thrilled with his performance and awarded him a six-year, $162 million contract. While this is fewer years and a little smaller annual compensation, Rodon entered free agency with far less regular success to back it up. However, since joining the Yankees, he has battled with injuries and command, which has turned New York fans against him. He has only produced 1.6 fWAR in his two seasons and is still under contract for four more seasons.
ZiPS dislikes Fried’s work for the next eight seasons. The projection model only expects the former Braves ace to produce 13.0 WAR, which would be worth $120 million. If this forecast is correct, the Bronx Bombers will have paid roughly $100 million more than expected.
Dan Szymborski acknowledges he’s more bullish about Fried’s prospects, but the lefty also increased his walk rate and had his worst season by ERA and FIP since he was a rookie. For the Braves, offering a contract even close to what the Yankees paid was not worth the risks associated with retaining Fried for so long. This was not a case of Atlanta conserving pennies; rather, New York needed to pivot and outbid every other team vying for Max Fried by a significant margin.
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