Spencer Schwellenbach, the Atlanta Braves’ right-handed starter, may have already broken out during the 2024 campaign. But Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer predicts even larger things from the 24-year-old in 2025. In an article choosing one breakout talent for each of the 30 MLB teams, Rymer selected Schwellenbach as Atlanta’s breakout star for next season.
“When you look at the stats that Schwellenbach put up last year, it’s hard not to feel like maybe this is the reason why the Braves didn’t bother to retain Max Fried or Charlie Morton,” Rymer explained. “The righty’s walk rate was remarkably low last year, and not only because he was adept at hitting the strike zone. “He was also in the 96th percentile at getting hitters to expand the zone, where pitchers always have the high ground.” Schwellenbach’s numbers included an 8-7 record and a 3.35 ERA. He also had a 1.043 WHIP and 127 strikeouts over 123.2 innings.
This offseason, I’ve made a big deal about how many innings the Braves need to replace with the departures of Max Fried and Charlie Morton. But Schwellenbach might help fill the hole.
Schwellenbach pitched 168.2 innings in 2024, including the minors last season. That was extraordinary, especially given that Schwellenbach had never thrown more than 65 innings in a single calendar year. Schwellenbach pitched all of those innings in 2024 and continued to be excellent.
He allowed only one run in each of his final three starts last fall. Could Schwellenbach pitch 170 innings for the Braves by 2025? Quite possible. If Rymer is correct, the right-hander will do so while throwing at an elite level. The Braves still need another arm in their rotation. However, if Schwellenbach could be a consistent pitcher every five days, Atlanta would benefit greatly.
If Schwellenbach builds on his 2024 season and has a breakout start this summer, the Braves can partner him with 2024 NL Cy Young champion Chris Sale to form a deadly 1-2 starter punch. The Braves will also welcome back Spencer Strider from Tommy John surgery during the first part of the season.
Reynaldo López is still in Atlanta’s rotation. López is coming off a career season in which he went 8-5 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.106 WHIP over 135.2 innings. The exits of Fried and Morton do not spell the end for the Braves. However, the rotation’s success in 2024 is primarily dependent on Rymer’s Schwellenbach projection.
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